DTN mid-day corn comments

CORN:   Corn is steady to fractionally lower at midday which is a light
disappointment for the market bulls following the supportive crop ratings
Monday afternoon.

  Combining the overnight trade into our midday market the range in corn has
been 2 3/4 higher to 2 1/4 lower. The trade is consolidating with the downward
pressure subsiding this past week, but there is limited buying above the
$3.40-42 area on the December contract. There will be some needed light rains
in the western belt this week but nothing heavy; the overall expected Corn Belt
rains this week are on the light side. This has the market expecting a lightly
lower crop rating again next week which is expected to keep futures supported
on light breaks. Crop conditions Monday afternoon fell 4 percent in the G/E
category down to 58 percent; estimates were for ratings to be steady to 2
percent lower. There were some reports out around noon yesterday predicting the
lower ratings; this led to the rally Monday afternoon, pricing in the
supportive report. The trade will be looking for private production estimates
tomorrow and on Friday. Look for afternoon direction from the noon forecasts;
if no major change is seen then mixed trade is expected. 

Cool milking videos I found online.

These are mostly so I can find them again easily. Oh hell, who am I kidding, no one reads this anyway.

Time lapse of a swing parlor


Cute redhead milking in a double 8 herringbone parlor:
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/id/418851240

Double 20? Parlor:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhB_BzldFA0

The future of milking?

This is a video of DeLaval's robotic milker at work. The milker uses a special teat cup to wash the teats and then milks the cow. The first cow only has 3 teats. The benefit of the machine is the reduction in labor allowing small farmers more time to care for the cows and take care of crops as well as lowering the stress level on the cow by allowing her to be milked when she wants to be.

Why is Wells Fargo (WFC) so hated?

Why has WFC performed so poorly this year? Listening to the conference call this morning, the company has very limited risk to hedge funds and sub-prime loans. They also have bought back 77 million shares of stock YTD after buying back only 30 million shares last year. They have another 60 million shares that the board has approved can be bought. There are 3.36 Billion shares outstanding, so since the start of '06 the company has bought back 3.1% of the outstanding shares, and if they continue buying the other 60, it will be 5% All I can figure is that money managers fear the finance sector right now and that is keeping WFC down.

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/17

Corn, Beans and Wheat All Lower at Midday

  Corn and beans are lower at midday due to continued favorable weather
outlooks along with bearish technical momentum. Wheat is firmer due to some
fresh export news and the limited spillover pressure from the row crops versus
Monday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

  The U.S. stock market indices are higher. The interest rate products are
lower. The dollar index is five higher. Live cattle are higher and lean hogs
are sharply higher. Energies are mixed and precious metals are lightly higher.


CORN:

  Corn trade is sitting around eight lower at midday, which has it near the
daily lows. The futures are within a nickel of the multi-month lows printed in
early July. The Monday afternoon crop ratings were supportive, but the weather
kept the market from moving higher overnight. Opening calls were 3 to 4 lower;
the night session finished around 2 lower, but there may be some follow-through
selling that has the market a little lower. Crop ratings were expected to
decline, but not the 6 percent loss in good-to-excellent ratings seen on the
report Monday afternoon. Good-to-excellent ratings are now at 64 percent, which
is 2 percent higher than a year ago. The crop progress number listed 56 percent
of corn silking versus 46 percent last year and a 36 percent five-year average.
The forecasts continue to have good rains for this week and some rains have
shifted into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Rains are falling in the
central 30 percent of Illinois currently with scattered rain in Indiana and
Ohio. Look for support this afternoon at the multi-month low of $3.36 on the
December contract; if we slip below there, further long liquidation is likely.


SOYBEANS:

  Soybean trade has been actively mixed but is challenging the downside at
midday. The beans are down a dime, meal is down $3 and soybean oil is lightly
higher. The soybean oil has been firmer due to crude strength Tuesday with
crude hitting $75, but now crude is lower on the day taking the supportive
crutch away from bean oil. This has the beans under pressure, and they have
been down 15 cents. The weather items are considered negative and have the
market lower even though the crop ratings were lightly supportive. The key
questions at this point are what a fair price is and how much supportive
information did our recent rally price into the trade with our $2 rally from
April to our high on Friday. The weekly crop ratings saw a 3 percent drop in
good-to-excellent ratings versus last week, down to 62 percent which is 5
percent better than last year. The progress number listed 60 percent of the
beans now blooming versus a 48 percent five-year average, and 14 percent are
setting pods versus an 11 percent 5-year average. So we are now at a point
where the moisture needs for beans will begin to pick up, and it looks like
much of the Belt will see needed moisture this week. If midday forecasts remain
wet the market will likely challenge the downside yet Tuesday, but remember we
are in a weather market so anything can change day to day. 

WHEAT:

  Wheat trade is firmer at midday but losing ground due to spillover pressure
from the row crops. Chicago is up 8 cents at midday; KC and Minneapolis are up
2. Futures are 8 to 10 cents off the daily highs. Early strength was seen due
to the U.S. capturing some of the Egyptian tender. There was also some buying
in wheat due to thoughts the sell-off on Monday was overdone and only due to
the spillover pressure from corn and beans. The spring wheat progress on Monday
came in at 93 percent headed which is 7 percent ahead of the average. The
winter wheat harvest was listed at 70 percent complete, 3 percent behind the
average. Spring wheat conditions declined 2 percent down to 66 percent good to
excellent versus 34 percent a year ago, which helped give us overnight strength
and support around the open. Look for spillover direction from the row crops,
if wheat moves lower on the day some long liquidation may set in. .

  David Fiala

  David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Commodity Trading Advisor.

Milk Money holding update

I sold my CSCO last week, mainly out of boredom. Its up since then and will probably keep going. I bought a NYX Sep 85 call on Thursday for $4.00. Its currently trading at 4.70, but was as high as 5.50 today when NYX was up a buck. My target exit price is $9.00 which would require the common stock to reach the $92-93 range which I think is doable provided the market keeps pushing onwards and they can beat earnings. Hopefully the beat earnings by a sizable amount since this stock has traded rather crummily and merely meeting estimates might actually make the stock move down. I would have bought more than one call, but I decided I'd rather put money to work in the common. I'm buying more NYX and a little WFC tomorrow. WFC releases earnings tomorrow.

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/16

Corn, Beans and Wheat All Lower at Midday

  Sharply lower to limit-down trade was seen at midday on the grain floor. The
forecasts made a fairly dramatic turn versus Friday, giving us the big losses
we are seeing this week.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

  The U.S. stock market indices are higher. The interest rate products are
higher. The dollar index is 4 lower. Live cattle are mixed and lean hogs are
lower. Energies are mixed and precious metals are lightly lower.

CORN:

  Corn trade is locked the 20-cent limit down and has been most of Monday
morning. A combination of bearish weather forecasts and many long positions
giving "get me out" orders have the market limit down. The synthetic price
through the options is trading around another nickel below limit down. The
night session finished in the 15 to 18 lower range, but more positive forecasts
Monday morning versus last night had many opening only around a dime to 12
lower. But the rush to get out of long positions has been too much for any
market bulls to overcome. On the charts corn futures came within pennies of the
200-day and 20-day moving averages on Friday which are important long-term and
intermediate term chart levels, respectively. The market stayed below those
levels and is now under pressure which supports thoughts that the rally last
week was only a bounce in a bear market. A close at limit down will have the
market back below all major moving averages. The outside market items are
supportive with crude lightly higher and now trading over $74 and the dollar
trade down to a new low which is getting near multi-decade lows. Weekly export
inspections were in the upper half of expectations coming in at 38.5 million
bushels.

SOYBEANS:

  Soybean trade is near limit down at midday with beans down 49 cents, meal
down $18 and soybean oil down 85 points. The weather forecasts took some heat
out and added rain, giving a much more favorable weather outlook versus Friday.
The big advance last week adding weather premium into the market set the stage
for this big fall. The NOPA June crush was reported at 141.58 million bushels
which was down nearly 2 million from May, but the number was lightly higher
than expected. This has done little to support the beans. Also a story
circulating about possible soybean rust found in Texas has done little to
support the market. The weekly export inspections came in at 13.8 which were
above expectations. So there are a few positive items Monday morning, but it
goes to show the weather is the main market mover. On the charts the 10-day
moving average on November is at $9.10 and then the 20-day is at $8.83. If we
cannot close back above the 10-day, the trade will be focused on the 20-day as
support Monday night. A confirmation of wet forecasts on the noon weather
report is likely to lock the beans at the 50-cent limit down.

WHEAT:

  Wheat trade is sharply lower due to spillover pressure from the row crops
and less threatening weather for spring wheat. At midday we have the September
contracts 18 to 20 lower. The wheat is not down as much as the row crops,
illustrating some global quality wheat uncertainty remains, but long
liquidation has begun to set in at midday. Eye the 20-day moving averages and
expect some profit-taking pressure into the close and on Tuesday if we close
below them. The 20-days on the September contracts are at $6.10 in Minneapolis,
$5.95 in KC and $6.08 in Chicago. The weekly export inspections came in at 13.8
million bushels which below expectations and added to our pressure Monday
morning.

  David Fiala

  David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Commodity Trading Advisor.

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/13/07

Corn, Beans and Wheat All Lower at Midday

  It has been mostly a quiet morning on the grain floor; we are seeing lightly
lower prices at midday. Weather items look much like the weather picture on
Thursday. July contracts conclude trading at noon on this Friday the 13th.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

  The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the DOW scoring a new all-time
high and the S&P high of 1,563 is 11 points from the all-time high of 1,574
printed in March of 2000. The interest rate products are lightly higher. The
dollar index is 7 lower. Live cattle and lean hogs are mixed. Energies are
higher and precious metals are steady.

CORN:

  Corn trade has been lightly lower in slow trade; futures are currently down
2 and we have only traded from fractionally lower to just over 4 lower on the
day. The weather picture saw little change versus Thursday which has led to the
limited price movement. If noon forecasts hold any changes it will give the
market direction Friday afternoon. If no change is seen, traders lean toward a
lightly firmer close with short covering ahead of this important summer
weekend. Technically the short-term trend is now up and a higher close after
trading lower most of the session would look friendly as well heading into next
week. December corn now has resistance between $3.71 and $3.77 which is where
the 20-, 200-, 50- and 40-day moving averages lie. Outside market items are
lightly supportive with the strong stock market, higher crude and lower dollar.


SOYBEANS:

  Soybean trade is sitting lightly lower at midday with beans down 2 to 3,
meal down $1 and soybean oil down 10 points. Beans have traded just over a
penny higher to a dime lower, but most of the action was in the first ten
minutes of the day. Trade has been slow since. We did manage to sneak in a new
contract high before trading lower, so we saw new contract highs every day this
week. Our high Friday brought the futures just short of 50 cents higher on the
week and nearly $1.20 above the late June low. The technical trend remains up
but this market is very overbought. A bearish turn in the weather would be
expected to produce a limit or near-limit down day when or if it is seen. For
now the weather argument is supportive which will prevent sellers Friday
afternoon unless noon forecasts change the outlooks versus this those of Friday
morning.

WHEAT:

  Wheat trade is lightly lower at midday with trade 1 to 3 lower across the
three exchanges. This should continue to be a mixed day for wheat with trade
consolidating below the contract highs seen at the end of June. The Chicago
September contract has ranged from 5 1/2 lower to 2 1/2 higher. Volatility is
expected to stay high in this market in the bigger picture as you can argue a
scenario where wheat could still move to new highs due to tight global stocks
and good recent export demand. But you could also argue wheat could break a
buck on any lightly bearish news and still be at very good price levels. Iraq
has a small tender out there and India is expected to continue to buy wheat;
this should limit any major breaks near term as long as the row crops remain
firm.

  David Fiala

  David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Commodity Trading Advisor.

Short-term Trading with Oscar 7-13-07

DTN Closing comments 07/12/07

Perhaps the biggest favor USDA's Thursday morning reports paid to grain
market bulls was simply bringing attention to the markets. Noncommercial
(speculative) fund buying was noted to be strong in the ag futures complex
Thursday, adding double-digit gains to the soybean market and more recognition
of weather risk to corn. Intermarket wheat spreads also played a part in the
higher HRW and HRS performances.

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/12/07

   Corn, Beans and Wheat All Higher at Midday

  The monthly USDA Supply and Demand report was bearish for corn, but weather
and good export sales have corn higher at midday. Bean numbers were neutral,
but weather and chart buying have the beans up in double digits at midday.
Wheat numbers were supportive, giving us new July highs.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

  The U.S. stock market indices are higher. The interest rate products are
lower. The dollar index is flat. Live cattle are higher and lean hogs are
sharply higher due to technical buying and some export rumors. Energies are
lightly lower and precious metals are higher.

CORN:

  Corn trade is up 2 to 3 cents at midday due to spillover support from wheat
and beans along with positive weather arguments. The weekly export sales also
helped out the bull argument. The weekly corn sales were listed at 1 million
tons of old crop and 493,000 tons of new versus trade expectations between
700,000 and 900,000 tons. On the monthly report the new-crop 07/08 carryover
came in at 1.502 billion bushels, about 100,000 higher than expected. The
old-crop carryover jumped to 1.137 billion which was the real surprise that
added to the new crop number. The yield used for the new crop balance sheet was
unchanged from the June report at 150.3. The world balance sheet was also
negative with carryover jumping over 16 million tons, but the majority of this
was due to U.S. numbers with U.S. production up 10 million tons and beginning
stocks up nearly 4 million tons. Chinese beginning stocks were increased by 2
million tons. Look for the noon forecasts to set the tone Thursday afternoon.
Do not forget we have the July contracts going off the board at noon Friday and
either Thursday or Friday is rumored to be the last official day with the
Chicago Board of Trade as the Chicago Board of Trade of old with the CME merger
becoming effective following the announcement Monday.

SOYBEANS:

  Soybean trade is a dime higher at midday due to supportive weather items and
continued chart buying. We have seen new contract highs each day this week.
Meal we have $3 higher and bean oil 13 higher at midday. On the monthly report
the old-crop carryover came in at 600 million and the new crops at 245 million;
both were lightly higher than expected. The yield estimate remained at 41.5
bushels per acre. World carryover was down just over 2 million tons to 51.87
million which was mainly due to the U.S. production decrease. Weekly soybean
export sales were listed at 145,000 tons of old crop and 39,000 tons of new;
combined they were in the middle of expectations. Meal sales were listed at
41,000 tons of old crop and 32,000 tons of new, which was in the middle of
expectations. Soybean oil sales were listed at 9,300 tons; this was toward the
high side of expectations. The bull argument continues to be supported by
weather concerns; Thursday's USDA numbers should limit upside. 

WHEAT:

  Wheat trade has been active following interesting wheat class changes on the
USDA numbers and a lower overall carryover. At midday we have the September
contracts a penny lower in Chicago, 8 higher in Kansas City and 3 higher in
Minneapolis. The overall wheat balance sheet gave a carryover of 418 million
bushels which was down 25 million from last month; the average trade estimate
was looking for a lightly higher number. The production number was listed at
2.138 billion versus an average trade guess at 2.16 billion. The spring wheat
production number was at 498 million which was just above expectations, but
expected warm temperatures near term lend some support to Minneapolis. The hard
red winter (Kansas City) wheat production, at 964 million, was 7 percent below
last month and the soft red winter (Chicago), at 364 million bushels, was up 7
percent, which should give Kansas City support Thursday versus the other two
exchanges. The weekly export sales for wheat came in at 1.183 million tons, the
largest weekly sales number in my recent memory, plus it was during a holiday
week. We are at the highest price level in 11 years -- that alone is pretty
friendly. Look for active trade the rest of the day and do not be surprised to
see Kansas City stay firm versus Chicago.

  David Fiala

  David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Commodity Trading Advisor.

DTN Mid-day grain comments 7-11-07

   Corn, Soybean Futures Slightly Lower at Midday; Wheat Sees Gains

  Corn and beans are lightly lower at midday and have been mixed this morning.
Wheat is seeing moderate gains due to noted short covering ahead of the USDA
Supply and Demand report due on Thursday at 7:30 a.m. cst.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

  The U.S. stock market indices are higher. The interest rate products are
lower. The dollar index is 4 lower. Live cattle and lean hogs are mixed.
Energies and precious metals are lightly lower.

CORN:

  Corn trade has been mixed in slow trade with the December ranging from 2 1/2
higher to 3 1/2 lower; we are near the daily lows at midday. This is some
consolidation trade, which is considered normal for pre-report trade, but
surprisingly narrow, as this has not been a normal year. Corn trade moved to
the highest level in seven days this morning, and on Tuesday closed above the
10-day moving average for the first time since June 18 when we printed our June
high.  The move on the chart could spur on short covering ahead of the monthly
USDA report, but so far little has been seen. The trade is expecting higher new
and old crop carryover numbers on the report. The trade will be looking for old
crop carryover around 1.04 billion bushels, and new crop carryover should be
between 1.35 and 1.4 billion. Both of these numbers are negative month to
month, but have been at least partially priced into the market with our large
decline from mid-June to early July. Weather items appear lightly supportive
versus Tuesday. Outside market influences are flat.

SOYBEANS:

  Soybean trade is down a penny at midday, meal is steady and soybean oil is
down 10 to 15 points. We are seeing consolidation around the fresh contract
highs with the November range 2 1/4 lower to 5 1/2 higher. New contract highs
were seen today, but we are back below the previous high here at midday. The
forecasts appeared slightly warmer and dryer than Tuesday, which is a pattern
that is supportive for the market. But noon outlooks will most likely determine
where we close. There does need to be some nervous shorts around with an
expected supportive monthly USDA report Thursday afternoon, questionable
weather plus a positive chart (although we are getting overbought). The trade
is expecting an old crop carryover number just under 600 million bushels and a
new crop carryover just over 200 million. If the new crop carryover number
would be below 200, it would surely have everyone talking about $10 prices.

WHEAT:

  Wheat is seeing some solid gains at midday, with the September contracts up
14 cents in Chicago and up 9 cents in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Support is
from an absence of sellers ahead of the USDA production figures. The weaker row
crops at midday are noted limiting gains. The midday price on September Chicago
futures is $6.15, which is 45 cents below our one-month high and 41 cents above
our low on July 3, so we are virtually in the middle of our recent range. The
average trade guess for all U.S. wheat production is 2.16 billion with a range
between 2.033 and 2.238 billion. The average spring wheat estimate is 490
million bushels, and the average trade guess for all winter wheat is at 1.584
billion bushels. The trade is expecting a carryover around 465 million bushels.
Traders look for sideways and active trade the remainder of the day.

  David Fiala

Milk Money's Current Holdings

I thought I would run through my current holdings, if only to reinforce in my own mind why I hold the positions and what my goals and exit strategies are, if any.

CSCO
GS
KRY
LVLT
MON
NYX
PGDP(otc)
PIV
VZ
WFC

FLEX
MVIS
KRY

CSCO--This was one of Jim Cramer's 9 top growth, value, and spec stocks. I don't remember which category it fell into for sure. I don't own a very large position and so far its slightly below par in value. Everyone says that tech stocks do better in late summer through the end of the year, but I think I'll unload this stock soon to put the money to work in NYX.

GS--Another one of Cramer's picks for the year. I think GS was a value pick as it trades at a realtivly low P/E ratio. I own a whole 3 shares. GS has had a couple small runs but keeps getting knocked back to about where I bought it. In fact, today, it fell into the red. I think this company has a lot of potential because they've got their fingers in just about every pie out there and I would like to keep it long term and add to it, provided I ever make money somewhere else to use.

KRY--Cramer used to do a radio show and I found some of them on thestreet.com and listened to them. KRY was a stock he was pushing on the show. They are a Canadian company trying to get a gold mine started in Venezuela. All they really need now is to recieve an environmental permit from the country, which both the company and the regulators in Venz. have said they should recieve, but they've been waiting a long time and stringing investors along. Cramer switched his position shortly after the shows and so far he hasn't been wrong. There has been lots of money to make if you day trade the stock, but I don't have the balls or money for that kind of trading. The gold mine is huge, and if they do every actually get the permit I think they could make a good long term holding, but I'm tired of waiting and I'm going to cash out a couple days after they get the permit if the stock runs up. I'd love to see 10-12 a share, but I think 7-8 is more realistic short term.

LVLT-- A Cramer speculative pick of the year (hrrm, noticing a trend here. . .) This is a play on bandwidth shortage. I don't know if there will ever be a shortage, but the volume of traffic on the internet is ever increasing. Just this March we finally got DSL out here in the sticks and I know I watch a whole lot of video on the internet that I never used to be able to. I also play some multiplayer computer games. I can't be the only one.

MON--I picked this stock all by myself! I got in in Feb and have enjoyed the run up since then. Living on a farm, I knew the high price of corn due to ethanol demand would auger well for a company like Monsanto and I was right. More corn acres means more sales of seed corn, much of which will be RoundUp Ready and that also means higher sales of RoundUp, especially considering the amount of acres coming from CRP which needs to be sprayed with something hard hitting like RoundUp to prepare it for corn. Also, since Monsanto gets tech fees on anything RoundUp Ready, you get the added benefits from other companies selling extra seed corn. My only complaint about this stock is that I didn't buy nearly enough of it.

NYX--This is one ugly traded stock. It was Cramer's #1 growth stock of the year and it has about driving him crazy. Its down probably 20% from where he's recommended it. I think it has a great long-term story and I've been buying on the way down and have lowered my cost basis to around 86. I'm still down, but its not as ugly as it could be. I've been throwing pretty much all my spare money into this stock as it has the potential to rocket once it gets some support behind it. There is much speculation that they will buy a US exchange such as NMX, ICE, or the CME/CBOT and while I think this could be helpful, I hope they keep chasing the global exchange story and hookup with or buy Tokyo. I'm not sure they could acquire Tokyo, but if they could I think it would be huge. NYX was the only green in my whole portfolio today, which is odd for how its traded this spring.

PGDP--These guys are prospecting for gold and silver in Mexico. They've got some decent sites picked out. I had a really good gain right out the gate with this stock after I picked it up in Feb, but it has since given it all and more back. Everyone says avoid penny stocks and they are probably right, though I think this has the potential to be a real company someday.

PIV--This is an ETF based on the ValueLine strategy. ValueLine has a long track record of great returns, but so far the ETF hasn't been all that exciting. I wanted an ETF for no good reason and this was one that interested me.

VZ-- I picked this as part of the dogs of the dow theory. I think it was the underdog of the dow last year. If I understand it correctly, you pick the worst performing or highest yielding stock of the dow 30 from the previous year and invest in it until the next year when you pick the new worst stock. I think this strategy has had good returns in the past and I should study up some more on it. VZ hasn't been awesome, but it has been up 10-15% this year at times.

WFC--This is another stock I picked myself. I have an account with them and I think they are a good company. So far, they haven't been hurt much by the whole sub-prime mess though the stock hasn't really done anything year to date. Maybe if we get a rate cut the banks will start to move.

I also have a couple option positions. I own 10 MVIS Dec 5 calls. I'm hoping to dump 5 of them at 1.85/contract as that will cover my initial investment and allow me to see what happens with the other 5.

3 FLEX Oct 10 calls. I got these by following Lenny Dykstra's column on thestreet.com. They haven't done much for me yet, but they still have a few months to play out.

2 KRY JAN08 7.50 calls. Still waiting for the permit then I'll jump out of these.

These go to eleven

The USDA released a crop condition report yesterday. Basically corn and beans rated good-excellent dropped about 3% since the last report. It was enough to slow losses yesterday and to allow for small gains today. Most of the speculative buyers liquidated and may now be buying back in giving some support.

According to DTN:

Corn is 6 higher at midday, sitting in the upper part of our daily range.
Corn is at a six-day high and has traded above the 10-day moving average for
the first time in three weeks. The move on the chart could spur short covering
Tuesday or Wednesday ahead of the monthly USDA report. The trade is expecting
higher carryover numbers on the report due to the higher-than-expected
quarterly stocks number and the higher June acreage number. The overnight trade
was lower following lightly supportive crop ratings due to the favorable
weather outlooks seen Monday. But the forecast dial turned to hotter with less
rain, which has the market firmer. USDA reported corn crop conditions at 70
percent good to excellent on the report Monday afternoon, down 3 percent from
last week and 7 percent better than last year's condition.

It's forecasted to be a little cooler here, but we could really use some rain now and
I don't think we will get any. I think this corn market is bottoming and preparing to
go back up. We may even see record prices this winter if the whole country stays as
hot and dry as it has been.

USDA acerage report

The USDA released its acreage report on the last Friday in June. I've been busy and I'm a huge procrastinator or I might have mentioned it here. The report showed a larger than expected increase in corn acreage this year. This was rather bearish for the corn market and the price of corn has dropped around $1/bushel in the past two weeks. It was pretty bullish for soybeans since they were the major crop replaced with corn. We aren't in a tight soybean market yet with a decent carryout expected.

Now the market only has weather to trade on for a month or better until the yield estimate start being released. Its starting to get dry in the eastern corn belt again which has helped out corn prices some this week. My feeling is that if the crops there were bad enough to drive the price up to $4.00/bushel in June than the bit of rain they got isn't going to be enough to help their crops out much. Where I am in NE Iowa, things look about as good as they ever have. Some of our corn might start tasseling next week which would be a week or two ahead of schedule. We are getting dry again, but it doesn't seem to be bad enough to hurt the corn yet. There is a chance of rain on Monday, so maybe that will be our break. If we keep getting moisture and it doesn't get too hot all summer, I think this may be this farms best year for corn yields.

Looking at the corn market, I think it will creep back up provided there are dry conditions somewhere to keep traders edgy. A lot of the added corn acres this year were marginal ground and they only planted corn because of the basis, so I think even with more acres than expected, we might not harvest all that much extra corn. Maybe I'll be surprised again, I certainly didn't think acerage increased that much.

Soybeans are probably the place to go long though, until they can buy a lot of acres in Brazil.