You know, by now, I at least thought I'd have a comment saying my blog sucks. This is rather disappointing.

Where we've been, where we're going

What a few weeks its been in the stock markets. If you're a bear, you are most likely rolling in money, if you aren't and don't have protection on your accounts, you may be nursing big losses. I guess I'm somewhere in between.

I started selling most of my positions at the beginning of the month. I'm now down to:
KRY
LVLT
MVIS
NYX
PGDP(now PZG)
WFC

I should have cut most of them. I have a tiny loss in MVIS because I just bought it this week, otherwise it might be a larger loss. I also own 10 calls that are trading a little under where I bought them. WFC rallied hard today on short covering and is also trading at a very slight loss. NYX, however, is killing me, and I'm not sure where the bottom will be. Currently down 18% and I also hold some calls that I'm pretty certain are not going to expire in the money. I should cut the losses and wait till things look better, but its hard. I need to find a good book on trading and psychology and how to overcome things like this.

There are some really bullish candles on the charts today, but I think this will just be a short bounce before we retest the lows of today and eventually break through them. inthemoneystocks.com does some excellent technical analysis at the end of each day in a free video. Goto the 'daily market report' link on the right side and at the bottom of the report is a link to the video. Or you can subscribe to the madd money blog. http://maddmoney.blogspot.com/

On a technical basis, we should get a small bounce tomorrow and maybe Monday and Tuesday. Tomorrow is OE and the big players don't want to get put a ton of stock so they will push prices up. After that it all depends on how many debt bombs go off and if the fed does anything. We should go back and test the lows of today, maybe bounce again, but eventually push through these lows, and then look out below. Thats paraphrasing what the inthemoneystocks.com guys are saying.

I started dabbling in puts last week, and I'm probably in over my head now unless this market absolutely collapses. If you do have a large portfolio and have/had large gains, I highly recommend you look into protective puts. Especially in a market like this. Its probably too late to protect all your gains, but if we keep trending down, you may hate yourself if you don't. Also remember that cash is indeed a position. And getting out now to get back in later at a lower price is a great way to make money.

I've been using puts more for speculation. I've been buying puts on DIA which is an ETF that follows the DJI. Forevery 100 points the dow moves, this etf moves a point. I've owned Sept puts at 132, 130, and I bought some at 127 today when things were looking really crummy. The 132 puts would be equilivent to dow 13,200 and the 127s to 12,700. Pretty simple.

I own 2 132s, 5 130s, and 3 127s. I sold 3 of the 130s today for an 86% gain over 2 days. Hopefully we can breakdown next week and I can unload the rest of these, or reevaluate how long to hold them.

Tomorrow I am going to try to flip some Aug calls on the SPY which follows the S&P index. I've got a limit order in, but I'm guessing the market will gap up and I won't get in. After today, I'm going to try not go get greedy on them, especially considering tomorrow is OE.

If you don't want to go short with puts, there are some good inverse ETFs out there that go up 2x as much as the index they follow goes down.
Short 1x
PSQ-QQQ
DOG-DJI
SH-S&P

Short 2x
SDS-S&P
QID-Nasdaq
DXD-DJI

There are also some that short sectors like real estate and financials. If we bounce here any of these may provide good entry points. See the whole list at: http://www.proshares.com/funds
This is just like teenage sex, protect yourselves out there.

Comments on grains tomorrow if I feel like it. Don't get your hopes up.

DTN mid-day corn comments

CORN:   Corn is steady to fractionally lower at midday which is a light
disappointment for the market bulls following the supportive crop ratings
Monday afternoon.

  Combining the overnight trade into our midday market the range in corn has
been 2 3/4 higher to 2 1/4 lower. The trade is consolidating with the downward
pressure subsiding this past week, but there is limited buying above the
$3.40-42 area on the December contract. There will be some needed light rains
in the western belt this week but nothing heavy; the overall expected Corn Belt
rains this week are on the light side. This has the market expecting a lightly
lower crop rating again next week which is expected to keep futures supported
on light breaks. Crop conditions Monday afternoon fell 4 percent in the G/E
category down to 58 percent; estimates were for ratings to be steady to 2
percent lower. There were some reports out around noon yesterday predicting the
lower ratings; this led to the rally Monday afternoon, pricing in the
supportive report. The trade will be looking for private production estimates
tomorrow and on Friday. Look for afternoon direction from the noon forecasts;
if no major change is seen then mixed trade is expected. 

Cool milking videos I found online.

These are mostly so I can find them again easily. Oh hell, who am I kidding, no one reads this anyway.

Time lapse of a swing parlor


Cute redhead milking in a double 8 herringbone parlor:
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/id/418851240

Double 20? Parlor:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhB_BzldFA0

The future of milking?

This is a video of DeLaval's robotic milker at work. The milker uses a special teat cup to wash the teats and then milks the cow. The first cow only has 3 teats. The benefit of the machine is the reduction in labor allowing small farmers more time to care for the cows and take care of crops as well as lowering the stress level on the cow by allowing her to be milked when she wants to be.

Why is Wells Fargo (WFC) so hated?

Why has WFC performed so poorly this year? Listening to the conference call this morning, the company has very limited risk to hedge funds and sub-prime loans. They also have bought back 77 million shares of stock YTD after buying back only 30 million shares last year. They have another 60 million shares that the board has approved can be bought. There are 3.36 Billion shares outstanding, so since the start of '06 the company has bought back 3.1% of the outstanding shares, and if they continue buying the other 60, it will be 5% All I can figure is that money managers fear the finance sector right now and that is keeping WFC down.

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/17

Corn, Beans and Wheat All Lower at Midday

  Corn and beans are lower at midday due to continued favorable weather
outlooks along with bearish technical momentum. Wheat is firmer due to some
fresh export news and the limited spillover pressure from the row crops versus
Monday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

  The U.S. stock market indices are higher. The interest rate products are
lower. The dollar index is five higher. Live cattle are higher and lean hogs
are sharply higher. Energies are mixed and precious metals are lightly higher.


CORN:

  Corn trade is sitting around eight lower at midday, which has it near the
daily lows. The futures are within a nickel of the multi-month lows printed in
early July. The Monday afternoon crop ratings were supportive, but the weather
kept the market from moving higher overnight. Opening calls were 3 to 4 lower;
the night session finished around 2 lower, but there may be some follow-through
selling that has the market a little lower. Crop ratings were expected to
decline, but not the 6 percent loss in good-to-excellent ratings seen on the
report Monday afternoon. Good-to-excellent ratings are now at 64 percent, which
is 2 percent higher than a year ago. The crop progress number listed 56 percent
of corn silking versus 46 percent last year and a 36 percent five-year average.
The forecasts continue to have good rains for this week and some rains have
shifted into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Rains are falling in the
central 30 percent of Illinois currently with scattered rain in Indiana and
Ohio. Look for support this afternoon at the multi-month low of $3.36 on the
December contract; if we slip below there, further long liquidation is likely.


SOYBEANS:

  Soybean trade has been actively mixed but is challenging the downside at
midday. The beans are down a dime, meal is down $3 and soybean oil is lightly
higher. The soybean oil has been firmer due to crude strength Tuesday with
crude hitting $75, but now crude is lower on the day taking the supportive
crutch away from bean oil. This has the beans under pressure, and they have
been down 15 cents. The weather items are considered negative and have the
market lower even though the crop ratings were lightly supportive. The key
questions at this point are what a fair price is and how much supportive
information did our recent rally price into the trade with our $2 rally from
April to our high on Friday. The weekly crop ratings saw a 3 percent drop in
good-to-excellent ratings versus last week, down to 62 percent which is 5
percent better than last year. The progress number listed 60 percent of the
beans now blooming versus a 48 percent five-year average, and 14 percent are
setting pods versus an 11 percent 5-year average. So we are now at a point
where the moisture needs for beans will begin to pick up, and it looks like
much of the Belt will see needed moisture this week. If midday forecasts remain
wet the market will likely challenge the downside yet Tuesday, but remember we
are in a weather market so anything can change day to day. 

WHEAT:

  Wheat trade is firmer at midday but losing ground due to spillover pressure
from the row crops. Chicago is up 8 cents at midday; KC and Minneapolis are up
2. Futures are 8 to 10 cents off the daily highs. Early strength was seen due
to the U.S. capturing some of the Egyptian tender. There was also some buying
in wheat due to thoughts the sell-off on Monday was overdone and only due to
the spillover pressure from corn and beans. The spring wheat progress on Monday
came in at 93 percent headed which is 7 percent ahead of the average. The
winter wheat harvest was listed at 70 percent complete, 3 percent behind the
average. Spring wheat conditions declined 2 percent down to 66 percent good to
excellent versus 34 percent a year ago, which helped give us overnight strength
and support around the open. Look for spillover direction from the row crops,
if wheat moves lower on the day some long liquidation may set in. .

  David Fiala

  David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Commodity Trading Advisor.

Milk Money holding update

I sold my CSCO last week, mainly out of boredom. Its up since then and will probably keep going. I bought a NYX Sep 85 call on Thursday for $4.00. Its currently trading at 4.70, but was as high as 5.50 today when NYX was up a buck. My target exit price is $9.00 which would require the common stock to reach the $92-93 range which I think is doable provided the market keeps pushing onwards and they can beat earnings. Hopefully the beat earnings by a sizable amount since this stock has traded rather crummily and merely meeting estimates might actually make the stock move down. I would have bought more than one call, but I decided I'd rather put money to work in the common. I'm buying more NYX and a little WFC tomorrow. WFC releases earnings tomorrow.

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/16

Corn, Beans and Wheat All Lower at Midday

  Sharply lower to limit-down trade was seen at midday on the grain floor. The
forecasts made a fairly dramatic turn versus Friday, giving us the big losses
we are seeing this week.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

  The U.S. stock market indices are higher. The interest rate products are
higher. The dollar index is 4 lower. Live cattle are mixed and lean hogs are
lower. Energies are mixed and precious metals are lightly lower.

CORN:

  Corn trade is locked the 20-cent limit down and has been most of Monday
morning. A combination of bearish weather forecasts and many long positions
giving "get me out" orders have the market limit down. The synthetic price
through the options is trading around another nickel below limit down. The
night session finished in the 15 to 18 lower range, but more positive forecasts
Monday morning versus last night had many opening only around a dime to 12
lower. But the rush to get out of long positions has been too much for any
market bulls to overcome. On the charts corn futures came within pennies of the
200-day and 20-day moving averages on Friday which are important long-term and
intermediate term chart levels, respectively. The market stayed below those
levels and is now under pressure which supports thoughts that the rally last
week was only a bounce in a bear market. A close at limit down will have the
market back below all major moving averages. The outside market items are
supportive with crude lightly higher and now trading over $74 and the dollar
trade down to a new low which is getting near multi-decade lows. Weekly export
inspections were in the upper half of expectations coming in at 38.5 million
bushels.

SOYBEANS:

  Soybean trade is near limit down at midday with beans down 49 cents, meal
down $18 and soybean oil down 85 points. The weather forecasts took some heat
out and added rain, giving a much more favorable weather outlook versus Friday.
The big advance last week adding weather premium into the market set the stage
for this big fall. The NOPA June crush was reported at 141.58 million bushels
which was down nearly 2 million from May, but the number was lightly higher
than expected. This has done little to support the beans. Also a story
circulating about possible soybean rust found in Texas has done little to
support the market. The weekly export inspections came in at 13.8 which were
above expectations. So there are a few positive items Monday morning, but it
goes to show the weather is the main market mover. On the charts the 10-day
moving average on November is at $9.10 and then the 20-day is at $8.83. If we
cannot close back above the 10-day, the trade will be focused on the 20-day as
support Monday night. A confirmation of wet forecasts on the noon weather
report is likely to lock the beans at the 50-cent limit down.

WHEAT:

  Wheat trade is sharply lower due to spillover pressure from the row crops
and less threatening weather for spring wheat. At midday we have the September
contracts 18 to 20 lower. The wheat is not down as much as the row crops,
illustrating some global quality wheat uncertainty remains, but long
liquidation has begun to set in at midday. Eye the 20-day moving averages and
expect some profit-taking pressure into the close and on Tuesday if we close
below them. The 20-days on the September contracts are at $6.10 in Minneapolis,
$5.95 in KC and $6.08 in Chicago. The weekly export inspections came in at 13.8
million bushels which below expectations and added to our pressure Monday
morning.

  David Fiala

  David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Commodity Trading Advisor.